In 12 charts: Decoding Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh election results | Gujarat Election News


NEW DELHI: It was a complete decimation by BJP in Gujarat and a buoyant performance by Congress in Himachal Pradesh as the results for the two states were declared on Thursday.
The BJP won 156 out of 182 seats in Gujarat, posting not just its own personal best but surpassing Congress’s previous record of 149 seats in 1985. In Himachal, the Congress edged past the BJP and won the state by a comfortable margin, securing 40 out of the 68 seats.

The Aam Aadmi Party, which ran a spirited campaign in Gujarat, had to settle for just 5 seats. And in Himachal, the Arvind Kejriwal-led party drew a blank.

Here’s decoding the elections results with 12 charts …
Saffron sweep in Gujarat
Except for a few scattered pockets in north and western Gujarat, the BJP completed dominated the show in the state, winning 156 out of 182 seats – about 86% of the total seats.

The Congress plunged to its lowest numbers in the state, winning barely 17 seats, a huge erosion of 60 seats compared to 2017.
A spirited campaign by AAP helped the party open its account in a state that’s firmly in the grip of BJP. However, the numbers weren’t impressive enough as the party managed to win just 5 seats. But it will surely take heart out of its performance since it was its debut in the state.
Himachal keeps date with history
Since 1985, Himachal Pradesh has never once re-elected the ruling party. The hill state stuck to the trend in 2022 too.

After what seemed like a day-long see-saw battle, the Congress finally surged ahead of BJP and won 39 seats in the 68-member assembly.
While 3 Independents (rebels from Cong and BJP) also won, the AAP failed to open its account.

Victory margins
Data regarding victory margins show that the Congress just narrowly managed to beat out the BJP in Himachal while the saffron party won its seats in Gujarat by massive victory margins.
In Himachal, all the seats won by the Congress were secured with a victory margin of 20,000 votes or less.

In fact, only Seraj – the constituency of outgoing CM Jairam Thakur – saw a victory margin above 20,000 votes. The veteran BJP leader beat Congress’s Chet Ram by 38,000 votes.
Seven seats won by the Congress saw a victory margin of less than 2,000 votes. In Bhoranj, Congress’s Suresh Kumar defeated BJP’s Anil Dhiman by just 60 votes.

In Gujarat, the story was quite the opposite. The BJP won 51 out of 156 seats with a victory margin of over 50,000 votes.

It won another 91 seats with a margin between 10,000-50,000 votes
Only 4 seats in the state saw a gap of less than 2,000 votes.
Strike rate
In Gujarat, BJP logged a very impressive strike rate of 85.7%. In short, it won nearly 86% of the seats it contested.

Congress and AAP had a dismal strike rate of 9.5% and 2.8% respectively.
In Himachal, Congress had a healthy strike rate of 57.4% while BJP had a strike rate of 38.2%. AAP, which failed to open its account, naturally had a strike rate of 0.

Seat flips
The big difference-maker in Gujarat was the sheer number of seats BJP managed to flip this year.
From the Saurashtra-Kutch region to the northern belt to the Milk belt, BJP wrested a handsome number of seats from Congress.

Overall, it held on to 91 of its own seats and wrested 65. The Congress lost 67 seats and held on to just 10.
In Himachal, Congress managed to hold on to 16 seats and gained 23. On the other hand, the BJP suffered a lost of 23 seats.

BJP’s historic vote share in Gujarat
The BJP bagged 52.5% of the total ballots, posting its best ever vote share figures as well.

Notably, AAP also bagged a vote share of nearly 13%. According to pollsters, the party appears to have eaten into Congress’s votes, which saw an erosion of about 14% of the votes compared to 2017.
In Himachal, even though Congress won, its vote share was hardly 0.9% higher than that of BJP.

Unlike Gujarat, AAP had a dismal vote share in the hill state at just 1.1%
Votes worth
The votes worth figures again indicate how well BJP fared in Gujarat this year.
A quick calculation shows that on average, it took BJP 105,299 votes to win a single seat in this election. On the other hand, it took BSP 806,522 votes to win its seats.

In Himachal, it took 47,345 votes for Congress to win a seat while it took 69,542 votes for BJP to win a seat.


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