All bets are off in Madhya Pradesh fight

The ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress have both announced their candidates for most seats in Madhya Pradesh’s upcoming Assembly election, but their campaigns are yet to take off fully as both parties continue to face heat from upset party leaders who have been denied tickets, and rebels looking to hurt their prospects in multiple seats.

The scale of the pressure on the parties can be seen in the fact that the Congress has replaced its candidates for seven seats so far, while the BJP is yet to field candidates for two seats — Vidisha and Guna — with just five days left to file nominations. 

In what is shaping up as one of the tightest clashes in the State’s recent electoral history, both parties have different approaches, from their ground-level strategies and campaign pitches to projecting the face of the party. 

Congress: united, local leadership

The Congress — which had managed to form a government in 2018 but then lost it to Jyotiraditya Scindia’s rebellion in 2020 — has once again decided to fight under the leadership of former Chief Minister and Union Minister Kamal Nath, in its bid to secure a full majority and govern for a full tenure.

Mr. Nath, learning from previous setbacks, has been micro-managing the Congress’ strategy without much interference from the party’s central leadership in Delhi. As the party’s declared Chief Ministerial candidate, this could be his best — and presumably last — chance at the State’s top chair.

Having dealt with severe infighting in previous elections, the Congress has worked hard to project a united front this time, led by Mr. Nath and backed by other senior leaders, including Digvijaya Singh, Kantilal Bhuria, Ajay Singh, and Arun Yadav. Factionalism in the ranks, however, has come to the fore since the ticket distribution, especially after Mr. Nath’s remarks to the supporters of a party leader who was denied a ticket, asking them to “tear Digvijaya Singh and [his son] Jaivardhan Singh’s clothes”. Upset party workers have protested against the two leaders across the State over the last few days.

Congress leaders, however, argue that the protests and struggle for the party’s tickets reflect how energised the party cadre is this time around.

BJP: Collective leadership, national influence

The BJP, which has ruled Madhya Pradesh for 18 of the past 20 years, has decided to go with what it calls “collective leadership”, and has not named Shivraj Singh Chouhan, its 16-year-CM, as the party’s face. According to a BJP insider, this policy means giving similar responsibilities to most of Mr. Chouhan’s contemporaries in the party, and appealing to voters with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face.

Also Read | In M.P., BJP’s strategy this time is going to polls with Modi’s face alone

The BJP sprang a surprise when it fielded three Union Ministers, four MPs, and one party national general secretary as candidates. Some called it a move to defeat anti-incumbency, while others speculated that one of the national leaders could replace Mr. Chouhan should the BJP return to power. 

The party insider, however, called it a calculated move to utilise the influence of these leaders to re-energise volunteers, not just in their own seats, but in other seats nearby.

“For example, [Union Minister Narendra Singh] Tomar ji has been fielded from Dimani seat which comes under his Lok Sabha constituency Morena in Gwalior-Chambal region. The BJP could only win seven out of 34 [Assembly] seats of the region and Congress got 26. This time around, the party hopes for Mr. Tomar’s popularity to work in its favour,” he said. 

Union Ministers’ role

Also hailing from the region, Mr. Scindia — who moved from the Congress to the BJP in March 2020 with several MLAs, paving the way for a BJP government — has also been actively campaigning to prove his worth in the saffron party. Even though he is not contesting the Assembly election, the Union Minister has bargained for tickets for at least 18 leaders loyal to him. 

In similar moves, the party has fielded Union Minister Prahlad Singh Patel from the Narsinghpur seat in place of his brother and sitting MLA Jalam Singh Patel, and Union Minister Faggan Singh Kulaste from the tribal-dominated Mandla district’s Niwas seat, which his brother Rampyare Kulaste had lost in 2018. 

These two districts are part of the politically important Mahakoshal region, where the BJP could only win 17 seats while the Congress bagged 28 seats in 2018.

Even though the leaders themselves have avoided talking about the issue in public, each of their supporters have expressed confidence that they could take the top post. 

M.P. CM: a survivalist

Against all odds, Mr. Chouhan, a seasoned politician and great orator, dubbed by many as a “survivalist”, continues to be at the centre of the narrative in the State.

Until his name appeared in the BJP’s fourth list of candidates, he made headlines with his emotional speeches, seen as a message to the party high command about his hold on the State’s voters. Now, he is leading the party’s campaign with multiple rallies and events in a day and his aggressive stance on the Congress and the Opposition INDIA bloc. 

Populist manifesto

Charged up after its victory in the Karnataka Assembly election in May, the Congress began its poll campaign in M.P. by announcing multiple populist schemes, including allowances of ₹1,500 a month for women and ₹500 to ₹1,500 to school students; increased price for wheat and rice crops; health insurance along the lines of its Rajasthan scheme; 27% reservation for other backward classes (OBCs) in government jobs; and the implementation of the Old Pension Scheme for government employees.

The party hopes for a repeat of its success in Karnataka in Madhya Pradesh and four other States going to polls next month. 

Wooing women

The BJP government, which has run its own welfare schemes for years, was quick to catch up and increased the allowance for women under its ‘Ladli Behna Yojana’ from ₹1,000 to ₹1,250. Mr. Chouhan has also promised to raise the amount to ₹1,500 after the election, and eventually to ₹3,000. The age bar for the scheme has also been reduced from 23 to 21, widening the beneficiary net of 1.25 crore by an additional 45 lakh to 50 lakh women.

Days before the poll announcement, Mr. Chouhan also announced and notified 35% reservation for women in government jobs, except in the forest department, in an attempt to retain his women supporters, which the Congress is also vying for. There are about 2.72 crore women voters in M.P.

A Congress leader told The Hindu that the BJP had succeeded in getting at least 4% edge among women voters after the increase in the ‘Ladli Behna’ allowance. Admitting Mr. Chouhan’s influence over women voters in the State, the leader also said that the Congress had deployed its volunteers to pass the message on the ground that the BJP would not make Mr. Chouhan the CM even if it wins the election. 

“The fact that Shivraj had been visibly sidelined by the BJP leadership, and our message helped us dilute that edge to some extent,” the leader said.

Caste survey: little momentum

Days before the announcement of polls in the five States, the Bihar government published the results of a caste-based survey it had conducted to find out the current population of various communities. The result showed that OBCs and extremely backward classes (EBCs) formed over 63% of Bihar’s population.

Other Opposition parties, including the Congress, were quick to jump on the demand for a similar nationwide exercise. In M.P., the Congress has promised a similar survey if voted to power, in a move to woo the State’s OBCs, who make up nearly half the population. Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra are among the Congress leaders who have aggressively advocated for the exercise, terming it essential to provide right representation.

The demand, however, has not yet gained momentum in M.P. with another Congress leader saying that even though the party is actively taking the word to the masses, its impact is yet to be seen on the ground. 

The BJP has been relatively silent on this issue, and has accused the Congress of trying to create a caste-based divide in the society. Mr. Modi tried to counter the plank recently by saying that poor people should have the first rights over the country’s resources as they formed the biggest chunk of the population.

Apart from the two main parties, the Bahujan Samaj Party and its ally, the Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP), the Samajwadi Party, and the Aam Aadmi Party have also fielded candidates in several seats across the State. While the GGP holds some ground in the tribal-dominated areas of the State, the other three parties are expected to impact equations in regions close to Uttar Pradesh, mainly the Vindhya, Gwalior-Chambal, and Bundelkhand regions.