IMD predicts warmer November amid intensifying El Nino conditions

Above-normal rainfall is likely over some areas of the southernmost parts of peninsular India, most parts of northwest India, and many parts of east-central, east and northeast India.
| Photo Credit: K.K. Mustafah

Above-normal minimum temperatures are expected in most parts of India in November, barring some areas in the northwest and west-central regions, amid strengthening El Nino conditions, the IMD said on Tuesday.

At a press conference in New Delhi, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said rainfall over the country as a whole in November is most likely to be normal – 77-123% of the long-period average.

Above-normal rainfall is likely over some areas of the southernmost parts of peninsular India, most parts of northwest India, and many parts of east-central, east and northeast India, he said.

EI Nino conditions are prevailing over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest global forecasts indicate that the El Nino conditions are likely to continue during the season and positive IOD conditions are likely to weaken during the coming months, the IMD said.

Mr. Mohapatra, however, said models suggest that El Nino conditions are unlikely to continue into the next monsoon season.

El Nino conditions – the warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America – are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Indian Ocean Dipole is defined as the difference in the sea surface temperatures between the western parts of the Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern parts of the ocean near Indonesia.